Here are a few examples of how you might use the more complex battle simulator to obtain some of the results that appear in the appendices to the Phoenix rules.


In Appendix B: Forecasts and Estimation, there is an example in which 4 PR LT SC SC XW XW is attacking CU BK DD at equal prof. The text says that the odds of the latter fleet completely dying are 64.309%, and the odds of exactly the DD surviving are 26.097%.

The first result (64.309%) you could get using the simple form, but let's do it using the complex form so we can go on to ask the other questions. In the form, enter 4 PR LT SC SC XW XW as the first and only attacking force, and CU BK DD as the first and only defending force. Since the forces are assumed to have equal prof, you don't actually have to fill in a prof for either of them. (They'll both be taken to be prof 0.)

Under "results", select "All defending forces" and the chances that "forces of one or both sides survive". (By selecting only defending forces, you'll in fact get told only about the defending force surviving. But that's okay, since we know the attacker survives.)

Under "How are they fighting?", click on "Single Attack". You will get back a result saying there is a 64.309% chance that all selected forces die.

To find the chance of the DD alone surviving, you can't ask about specific units, but you can finesse the question by asking about the PU value. Under "results", leave "All defending forces" selected, and choose "their combined PU value is between 15 and 15". Again click on "Single Attack". The odds of exactly 15 PUs surviving are 26.097%.

Note that the basis of the example was a player wondering if his fleet could expect to kill the neutral fleet without losing anything but PRs. Even if more than one neutral ship survives the first round of combat, that might be okay, since the attacker might not lose three PRs in the first round, or might not lose a SC even if one gets shot at in the second round. So you might instead ask, in two rounds of combat, what are the odds that the attacker loses nothing but PRs? To find this, go back and add a Rearrangement for the attacker: 4 PR SC SC LT XW XW. (This ensures that the LT does not get shot at.) Under "results", select "All attacking forces", and the chances "they contain approximately 5 units that cost 10 or more each". Select a combat of "Double Attack" (which automatically includes a rearrangement after the first attack). The results won't be exact for this combat, but they should show about a 96.9% chance of 5 non-PR units surviving.


In Appendix C: Operational Combat, various examples are given of the "Law of Large Forces". One example says that 3 GI 6 LI 3 MI 2 HI 2 AI at -3 prof is about 50-50 to win against 3 HI 13 LI. Enter those forces as the attacker and defender, giving the attacker a proficiency of 5 and the defender a prof of 8. Select results of "all attackers and all defenders", chances that "forces survive". Select a combat of "Attack/Repeat". You should see the defender surviving about 55% of the time, and the attacker about 45% (with some chance of both dying and even about a 1% chance that both sides survive).

To see the importance of the first round of combat in determining the outcome of this battle, let's see what would happen if the attacker invades on a turn when he is only -2 prof, but he doesn't have enough commands to order a REP until the next turn, and the defender meanwhile increases his prof at the end of the turn.

First, go back and make the defender be prof 7. In the "Battle Sequence" section, select "1st attacker" does "single attack" vs "1st" opposing force. Then select "1st defender", "add prof". In the next combat line, select "1st attacker", "repeated attack" vs "1st" opponent. Select the proposed combat marked "See Below". This time the attacker wins about 75%.

If you instead choose the "Attack/Repeat" button, so the profs stay unchanged at -2, the attacker still wins about 75%. The first round of combat is crucial.

Similarly, you can make the attacker be -4 prof for the first round, and -3 for the REP, by having it be the "1st attacker" that adds prof between the initial attack and repeated attack. Be sure to turn off the checkbox for "1st defender" in the "add prof" section; otherwise both forces will increase their prof, which will have no net effect. This time the attacker wins just under 30%. Here the later rounds of combat remain important, because the defender's LIs aren't dying as fast. If you invoke "Attack/Repeat" with the attacker at -4 prof throughout, his chances drop to about 17%.


In Appendix C: Battle Tactics, it is mentioned that the defender can sometimes regain tactical length by building new forces or combining existing forces. (The attacker often cannot combine forces since a force that has attacked cannot transfer. Sometimes the attacker can attack with one force, then transfer in other units that were already present, and attack again.) To see this effect, set up a combat as follows: the attacker has two armies of 8 HI each; the defender likewise has two armies of 8 HI each. (We don't use 16 because we don't want to worry about forces getting longer than 16 when we combine them.) Set up a Battle Sequence as follows: 1st attacker does single attack, then 2nd attacker does single attack, then 1st attacker does repeated attack, then 2nd attacker does repeated attack; in each case, the attack is against the 1st and 2nd opponents. Select results of "all attackers and all defenders", "forces survive". Select "See Below" and you should see about a 49% chance of either side winning, and 1% each of both surviving or both dying.

Now, in between the first two attacks, select 1st and 2nd defenders and select "combine". This time the results will show the defender winning about 80% of the time.


Under Unusual Tactics: Attack Specific, one example shows a player defending with BK BK MR MR DN against two fleets: 10 HW MR LV and 9 PR SF 2 PD. The defending has a second fleet consisting of 3 XW 2 BW AT. The example says that if the PD fleet REPs, it kills the DN 95% of the time, but if the AT fleet attacks the PD before it REPs, the PDs then kill the DN only 33% of the time.

To set this one up, enter two Attacking forces, 10 HW MR LV and 9 PR SF 2 PD, and two Defending forces, BK BK MR MR DN and 3 XW 2 BW AT. (Note that it doesn't really matter which side is the defender and which the attacker, as long as you're consistent.) Ultimately, what the defender wants to be sure of is that the LV is dead, so in the "results" section select "individual forces" and check only "1st attacker" (i.e., the LV fleet). Ask to report the chances that "their cargo is at least 1". (You could also ask the chances that the fleet contains 1 unit of LV cost or higher, since the HWs and MR are cheaper than the LV.)

Now skip down to the "Battle Sequence" section. In the first line, select "2nd defender" does "single attack" vs "2nd" opposing force. Leave the next set of items unchecked (no changes between combats). In the next set, select "2nd attacker" does "repeated attack" vs "1st" and "2nd" opposing forces. (Note that the DN force must be the first defender and the AT the second, so that the PD fleet will fight them in the right order when it attacks.) Again skip the "changes" items. For the third attack, select "1st defender" and "repeated attack" vs "1st" and "2nd" opposing forces; i.e., the DN does a REP vs both attackers after the PDs have tried their REP.

Go back and select the "See Below" button. You should get a result showing odds of around 30-35% that "more than 1" cargo survives in the LV fleet.

Now return to the Battle Sequence and change the first attack to be "no attack", and the second attack to include only the 1st opposing force. This simulates the case where the AT fleet never jumps in. Again select "See Below"; you should see around a 95% chance of the LV's cargo surviving.

Return again to the Battle Sequence and change the second attack to be "no attack", leaving just the attack in which the DN fleet REPs against both attackers. This is even worse for the defender, since the DN loses ships to the 10 HW MR LV fleet and thus does not shorten the PD fleet quickly enough. This should yield a chance of over 99% that the LV survives.


As a final example to demonstrate where some of the other features might get used, here's a sample combat not taken from the rules.

Suppose you're invading a homeworld. Your army consists of 3 GI 8 HI 2 LI 3 AI. The defender has two armies already built. The first is 16 LI, intended to shorten you by killing a few units, so his second army will have tactical length. The second army is GI 4 LI HI 5 LI HI 3 LI CP. He also has 119 PU. You expect to be +2 prof (which means his 16 LI won't be very effective; what a shame).

In practice you'd want to look at several combat sequences and possible defenses, but just as an example consider the case where you win the race and invade before he spends the PUs. If his 16 LI fail to kill anything, and your troops shoot well, you might actually win on line 1 and capture the PUs. If you don't, then you assume he builds some more units into the CP army, and further assume he has time to rearrange before you get around to ordering your repeated attack. (You might figure it's more important to invade some of his other planets than to get the small edge of going before he rearranges at the homeworld.) An obvious build is 7 AI, but he could also try 6 AI 5 LI or 5 AI 11 LI, trying to regain length. (Note that he should build the AIs before the LIs, so if there's not room for all the units it's LIs that get left off.) Let's try 5 AI 11 LI. So the sequence you want to look at is: you attack the two existing armies, then if his armies both died you've won; else he builds as much of 5 AI 11 LI as will fit into the CP army, rearranges it, and then you do a repeated attack.

To set this up, enter your army as the attacker, and give it prof 8. Enter his two armies, each at prof 6, and then a third army representing his build: 5 AI 11 LI. Enter a defensive rearrangement of 50 LI GI HI HI CP 20 AI. (There won't really be 50 LI or 20 AI, so the arrangement really just says "as many LIs and AIs as there are".)

As the Battle Sequence, the 1st attacker does a single attack vs. the 1st and 2nd opponents. Then check 1st and 2nd defenders, "concede", to represent the case where the defender never gets to add the 3rd army. Leave the second attack as "no attack", and proceed to the next "change" step; check 2nd and 3rd defenders, combine, arrange. Finally, in the third attack line, specify 1st attacker repeated attack against 1st and 2nd opponents.

For results, check individual forces, 1st attacker, 1st and 2nd defenders. (That way you won't count any unbuilt defensive units in the 3rd army.) Select "forces survive". Invoke the "See Below" combat button. Your attacking army should be about 94% victorious.

You can of course go back and try other possible defensive builds. E.g., 7 AI leaves you about 98% victorious, and 6 AI 5 LI yields 92%.

Meanwhile, though the front-line army of 16 LI may look ineffective at -2 prof (50% chance to kill each of your 2 LI, and 2% vs. each AI), it is having some effect. If you remove it (you can leave the battle sequence the same; there's nothing wrong with attacking an empty army), while keeping 5 AI 11 LI as the defensive build, you'll find you win about 97% of the time.